BREAKING DOWN
$4.10
National Average (+$0.79 since Feb 28)
STEP 1
US strikes Iran → Iran blocks Strait of Hormuz
STEP 2
21M barrels/day of oil transit BLOCKED
STEP 3
Global oil supply drops → Brent crude jumps to $96.40
STEP 4
Higher oil = higher gas prices at YOUR pump
Cheapest: Texas $3.52 | Mississippi $3.48
EXTRA MONTHLY GAS COST
+$47
Average American driver
ANNUAL IMPACT IF SUSTAINED
+$564
Per household
TOTAL CONSUMER IMPACT
+$1,800
Gas + food + shipping combined
QUICK RESOLUTION (25%)
Ceasefire by April → Gas drops to $3.60 by May
PROLONGED CONFLICT (35%)
$4-5/gal through summer 2026
ESCALATION (25%)
$6-7/gal possible. SPR deployed.
Key factor: When the Strait of Hormuz reopens
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