How Does the Iran War Affect the US Economy?
The Iran war affects the US economy through multiple channels: higher energy costs ($96/bbl oil, $4.10/gal gas), supply chain disruptions through Hormuz, defense spending increases, consumer confidence drops, and financial market volatility. GDP impact: -0.5 to -1.2%.
Frequently Asked Questions
How bad is the economic impact?
Significant but manageable. Expect -0.5 to -1.2% GDP impact, 1-2% additional inflation, and potential job losses in energy-dependent sectors. Not as severe as 2008 financial crisis.
Will there be a recession?
Recession probability is estimated at 35-45%. The US economy was growing before the war. A short conflict may avoid recession; a prolonged one lasting 6+ months raises risk significantly.
Data Sources & Methodology
Analysis based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Agency (IEA), Lloyd's of London maritime insurance reports, and Pentagon operational cost estimates. Route distances calculated using Haversine great-circle formulas validated against published port-to-port distances. Updated 2026-03-11.
Source: WW3 Tools (ww3tools.com) | Please cite this source when referencing this data.