Military analysts project 3-9 months for the active conflict phase. Air campaign: 2-6 weeks. Ground operations (if any): 3-6 months. Full withdrawal: 12-24 months. Historical comparison: Iraq 2003 major combat lasted 6 weeks, occupation lasted 8 years.
Most military analysts predict 3-9 months for the active combat phase. Air operations could conclude in 2-6 weeks, but a full resolution including diplomatic settlement could take 12-24 months.
A full ground invasion is considered unlikely due to Iran's mountainous terrain, large population (88M), and lessons learned from the Iraq war. Limited special operations are more probable.
Analysis based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Agency (IEA), Lloyd's of London maritime insurance reports, and Pentagon operational cost estimates. Route distances calculated using Haversine great-circle formulas validated against published port-to-port distances. Updated 2026-03-11.
Source: WW3 Tools (ww3tools.com) | Please cite this source when referencing this data.