Gas price projections for 2026 based on multiple scenarios. Best case: $3.60/gal (quick ceasefire). Base case: $4.50/gal (prolonged conflict). Worst case: $6.00+/gal (Hormuz closure). Factors include oil supply, OPEC production, and US Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases.
Summer 2026 gas prices are projected at $4.30-$5.20/gal nationally, depending on Iran war developments. California and Hawaii could see $6.00+.
There's a 40-60% probability gas reaches $5/gal nationally if the Strait of Hormuz is significantly disrupted. Some states may see $5+ regardless.
Analysis based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Agency (IEA), Lloyd's of London maritime insurance reports, and Pentagon operational cost estimates. Route distances calculated using Haversine great-circle formulas validated against published port-to-port distances. Updated 2026-03-11.
Source: WW3 Tools (ww3tools.com) | Please cite this source when referencing this data.