Comprehensive economic impact dashboard for the 2026 Iran War. GDP growth reduced by 0.3-0.8 percentage points. Inflation projected to reach 5.6-6.8% by mid-2026. Labor market: 145,000 defense sector jobs created versus 89,000 service sector layoffs. Federal Reserve facing impossible policy dilemma between fighting inflation and supporting growth. Full sector-by-sector breakdown with historical comparison.
GDP growth is projected to be 0.3-0.8% lower than pre-war forecasts. The war is adding an estimated $127/month to average household costs through higher gas, food, and goods prices.
Goldman Sachs estimates recession probability at 35%, up from 15% pre-war. The outcome depends on conflict duration and whether oil stays above $100/bbl for more than 3 months.
Analysis based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Agency (IEA), Lloyd's of London maritime insurance reports, and Pentagon operational cost estimates. Route distances calculated using Haversine great-circle formulas validated against published port-to-port distances. Updated 2026-03-11.
Source: WW3 Tools (ww3tools.com) | Please cite this source when referencing this data.