With IAEA inspectors expelled and nuclear facilities dispersed underground, Iran could potentially produce enough weapons-grade material for a bomb in 2-4 months. The 80-meter deep Fordow facility is considered impervious to conventional strikes.
Iran has enriched uranium to 84% (90% is weapons-grade). With IAEA access cut off, experts estimate 2-4 months to produce enough material for one device, though weaponization takes longer.
Surface facilities can be hit, but the Fordow enrichment plant is buried 80 meters deep inside a mountain and is considered impervious to all conventional bunker-buster bombs.
Analysis based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Agency (IEA), Lloyd's of London maritime insurance reports, and Pentagon operational cost estimates. Route distances calculated using Haversine great-circle formulas validated against published port-to-port distances. Updated 2026-03-11.
Source: WW3 Tools (ww3tools.com) | Please cite this source when referencing this data.