The Iran war is putting mixed pressure on home prices. Mortgage rates may drop as investors flee to Treasury bonds, but recession fears could reduce buyer demand. Historically, wars have not caused housing crashes — the 2008 crash was a financial crisis, not war-related.
Unlikely. Wars historically don't cause housing crashes. Expect a 3-7% price softening in some markets, but not a crash. Low inventory and strong demographics support prices.
Possibly. If the war triggers a flight to safety in Treasury bonds, mortgage rates could drop 0.25-0.50%. However, if inflation spikes from oil prices, rates could rise instead.
Analysis based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Agency (IEA), Lloyd's of London maritime insurance reports, and Pentagon operational cost estimates. Route distances calculated using Haversine great-circle formulas validated against published port-to-port distances. Updated 2026-03-11.
Source: WW3 Tools (ww3tools.com) | Please cite this source when referencing this data.