A ground war in Iran would dwarf Iraq and Afghanistan combined: 500,000+ troops needed, $2-3 trillion cost estimate, 3-10 year duration against 88 million people across mountainous terrain twice the size of Iraq.
Estimates range from $2-3 trillion over 10 years, compared to $2.4 trillion for Iraq and $2.3 trillion for Afghanistan. Iran's larger size and population would increase costs.
Military analysts estimate 3-10 years for major combat operations, with a potential 15-20 year occupation. Iran's mountainous terrain and population make it far harder than Iraq.
Analysis based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Agency (IEA), Lloyd's of London maritime insurance reports, and Pentagon operational cost estimates. Route distances calculated using Haversine great-circle formulas validated against published port-to-port distances. Updated 2026-03-11.
Source: WW3 Tools (ww3tools.com) | Please cite this source when referencing this data.