The Iran-Hormuz crisis is fueling inflation across every consumer category. Energy costs up 22%, food up 5-8%, transportation up 15%. Core CPI rising from 3.1% to a projected 4.5-7% if the conflict persists beyond 90 days. Historical comparison: the 1973 oil embargo pushed inflation to 12.3%.
The average American household is paying $127/month more due to war-driven inflation. Energy costs are the biggest driver, followed by food and transportation.
The Fed faces a dilemma: oil-driven inflation suggests rate hikes, but war uncertainty argues for holding steady. Markets currently price in a 60% chance of a rate pause.
2022 Russia-Ukraine inflation peaked at 9.1% CPI. Current Iran war trajectory projects 5-7% CPI — lower because the US is more energy-independent than in 2022.
In order: gasoline (+22%), diesel (+25%), jet fuel (+40%), cooking oils (+15%), airline tickets (+20-30%), and shipping surcharges (+300% for container rates).
Analysis based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Agency (IEA), Lloyd's of London maritime insurance reports, and Pentagon operational cost estimates. Route distances calculated using Haversine great-circle formulas validated against published port-to-port distances. Updated 2026-03-11.
Source: WW3 Tools (ww3tools.com) | Please cite this source when referencing this data.