How the Iran War Affects Mortgage Rates in 2026
The Iran-Hormuz crisis creates competing forces on mortgage rates. Treasury yields dropped 30 basis points (rate-lowering) but oil-driven inflation threatens Fed rate hikes (rate-raising). Current 30-year fixed at 6.4%. Three scenarios: rates dip to 5.8% (quick resolution), hold at 6.4% (status quo), or spike to 7.2% (escalation).
Data Sources & Methodology
Analysis based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Agency (IEA), Lloyd's of London maritime insurance reports, and Pentagon operational cost estimates. Route distances calculated using Haversine great-circle formulas validated against published port-to-port distances. Updated 2026-03-11.
Source: WW3 Tools (ww3tools.com) | Please cite this source when referencing this data.