How the Iran War Affects Mortgage Rates in 2026

The Iran-Hormuz crisis creates competing forces on mortgage rates. Treasury yields dropped 30 basis points (rate-lowering) but oil-driven inflation threatens Fed rate hikes (rate-raising). Current 30-year fixed at 6.4%. Three scenarios: rates dip to 5.8% (quick resolution), hold at 6.4% (status quo), or spike to 7.2% (escalation).