Iran War Oil Price Surge: Brent Crude Analysis & Forecast
Brent crude has surged past $112 per barrel following the Strait of Hormuz closure, disrupting 21 million barrels per day of oil transit. Three price scenarios analyzed: Moderate ($95-110 with quick resolution), Base ($110-130 with 3-6 month disruption), Severe ($130-150+ with full escalation). Historical comparison to 1973 Arab oil embargo, 1979 Iranian Revolution, 1990 Gulf War, and 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did oil prices spike after the Iran war started?
The Strait of Hormuz handles 21 million barrels of oil per day (21% of global supply). When Iran closed it, the sudden supply disruption caused Brent crude to surge from $76 to over $112/bbl.
How high could oil prices go?
In the worst case scenario (full escalation, extended Hormuz blockade), oil could reach $130-150/bbl. The base case projects $110-130 for a 3-6 month disruption.
Data Sources & Methodology
Analysis based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Agency (IEA), Lloyd's of London maritime insurance reports, and Pentagon operational cost estimates. Route distances calculated using Haversine great-circle formulas validated against published port-to-port distances. Updated 2026-03-11.
Source: WW3 Tools (ww3tools.com) | Please cite this source when referencing this data.