Recession probability: 35% if conflict lasts 3+ months. GDP growth slowing from 2.1% to projected 0.8%. Oil above $100/bbl for 90+ days historically triggers recession. Comparison: 1973 embargo caused 16-month recession, 1979 crisis caused 6-month recession. Fed in impossible position: raise rates for inflation or cut for growth.
Current probability is 35%. An oil price above $100/barrel sustained for 90+ days has historically triggered US recessions (1973, 1979, 1990).
In the worst case, GDP could contract 1-2% with unemployment rising from 3.7% to 5-6%. The 1973 oil embargo recession lasted 16 months with GDP falling 3.2%.
Analysis based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Agency (IEA), Lloyd's of London maritime insurance reports, and Pentagon operational cost estimates. Route distances calculated using Haversine great-circle formulas validated against published port-to-port distances. Updated 2026-03-11.
Source: WW3 Tools (ww3tools.com) | Please cite this source when referencing this data.