Will the Iran War Cause a Recession?
Current recession probability: 35%. S&P 500 down 4.2%, Dow lost 1,000 points, oil surged 31%. Three scenarios: No recession (55% — quick resolution), Mild recession (30% — sustained $90+ oil), Deep recession (15% — $120+ oil, prolonged Hormuz closure). Historical comparison: 1973 and 1990 oil shocks caused recessions; 2003 Iraq and 2022 Ukraine did not. War costs $891M/day.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will the Iran war cause a recession in 2026?
Recession probability is currently 35%. Historical pattern: oil shocks above $100/bbl for 90+ days have caused recessions (1973, 1990), but shorter disruptions (2003 Iraq, 2022 Ukraine) did not.
How is the stock market reacting to the Iran war?
The S&P 500 dropped 4.2% in the first week. The Dow lost ~1,000 points. However, historical data shows markets recover from war-related drops within 3-12 months in most cases.
Should I sell my stocks because of the Iran war?
Expert consensus: do not panic sell. Historical data from 7 major conflicts since 1990 shows the S&P 500 recovered to pre-conflict levels within 31-190 days in every case.
Data Sources & Methodology
Analysis based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Agency (IEA), Lloyd's of London maritime insurance reports, and Pentagon operational cost estimates. Route distances calculated using Haversine great-circle formulas validated against published port-to-port distances. Updated 2026-03-11.
Source: WW3 Tools (ww3tools.com) | Please cite this source when referencing this data.