Will the Iran war cause a recession in 2026?

Recession probability is currently 35%. Historical pattern: oil shocks above $100/bbl for 90+ days have caused recessions (1973, 1990), but shorter disruptions (2003 Iraq, 2022 Ukraine) did not.

How is the stock market reacting to the Iran war?

The S&P 500 dropped 4.2% in the first week. The Dow lost ~1,000 points. However, historical data shows markets recover from war-related drops within 3-12 months in most cases.

Should I sell my stocks because of the Iran war?

Expert consensus: do not panic sell. Historical data from 7 major conflicts since 1990 shows the S&P 500 recovered to pre-conflict levels within 31-190 days in every case.

Will the Iran War Cause a Recession?

Current recession probability: 35%. S&P 500 down 4.2%, Dow lost 1,000 points, oil surged 31%. Three scenarios: No recession (55% — quick resolution), Mild recession (30% — sustained $90+ oil), Deep recession (15% — $120+ oil, prolonged Hormuz closure). Historical comparison: 1973 and 1990 oil shocks caused recessions; 2003 Iraq and 2022 Ukraine did not. War costs $891M/day.