Iran War Job Losses: 92,000 Jobs Lost, Unemployment Hits 4.4%
92,000 jobs lost in February 2026. Unemployment rate: 4.4%. Industries losing jobs: tourism/hospitality (-25,000), retail (-18,000), airlines (-15,000), manufacturing (-12,000), logistics (-8,000), auto (-6,000). Industries gaining jobs: defense/military (+35,000), cybersecurity (+12,000), energy/oil (+10,000), healthcare (+8,000), government (+5,000). States most affected: Florida, Nevada, Hawaii (tourism-dependent). Goldman Sachs projects unemployment could reach 5.0% by Q3. Historical comparison: Iraq War and Gulf War employment impact.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will the Iran war cause a recession?
Current recession probability is 35% according to Goldman Sachs. If the conflict resolves within 2-3 months, recession is unlikely. If it extends beyond 6 months with sustained oil above $100, recession probability rises to 50-60%.
Which jobs are safe during the Iran war?
Defense, cybersecurity, energy, healthcare, and government sectors are actively hiring. Essential services, education, and tech (non-consumer) are relatively unaffected.
Data Sources & Methodology
Analysis based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Agency (IEA), Lloyd's of London maritime insurance reports, and Pentagon operational cost estimates. Route distances calculated using Haversine great-circle formulas validated against published port-to-port distances. Updated 2026-03-11.
Source: WW3 Tools (ww3tools.com) | Please cite this source when referencing this data.