When Will the Strait of Hormuz Reopen?
Three scenarios for Hormuz reopening: diplomatic resolution (30% probability, 3-6 months), military escort (50% probability, 1-3 months), and prolonged closure (20% probability, 6-12+ months). Track the reopening checklist and latest developments.
Data Sources & Methodology
Analysis based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Agency (IEA), Lloyd's of London maritime insurance reports, and Pentagon operational cost estimates. Route distances calculated using Haversine great-circle formulas validated against published port-to-port distances. Updated 2026-03-11.
Source: WW3 Tools (ww3tools.com) | Please cite this source when referencing this data.