Will Gas Prices Hit $5 a Gallon?
Gas price analysis showing three scenarios based on the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure. Current: $3.41/gallon (up 14% in one week). Best case (short war): $3.50-$3.80. Base case (prolonged, 4-6 weeks): $4.00-$4.50. Worst case (major escalation): $5.00-$6.00. US domestic production of 13M barrels/day is partially offsetting the impact.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much have gas prices gone up?
The national average jumped 14% in one week to $3.41/gallon, up 43 cents from a week ago.
Will gas hit $5 a gallon?
Only in the worst-case scenario (20% probability) — if the war expands significantly and multiple oil producers are disrupted. The most likely scenario is $4.00-$4.50.
Data Sources & Methodology
Analysis based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Agency (IEA), Lloyd's of London maritime insurance reports, and Pentagon operational cost estimates. Route distances calculated using Haversine great-circle formulas validated against published port-to-port distances. Updated 2026-03-11.
Source: WW3 Tools (ww3tools.com) | Please cite this source when referencing this data.