Will the Stock Market Crash Due to the Iran War?
A full market crash (30%+ decline) is unlikely. Historical data shows wars typically cause 5-15% corrections, not crashes. The S&P 500 has already dropped ~8%. Defense stocks are up 15-25%, while airlines, retail, and travel are down.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will the stock market crash?
A full crash (30%+) is unlikely. Wars historically cause 5-15% corrections followed by recovery within 6-12 months. The current 8% drop is within normal wartime range.
Should I sell my stocks?
Most financial advisors recommend staying invested. Historically, investors who sold during wartime crises and didn't re-buy missed significant recoveries.
Data Sources & Methodology
Analysis based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Agency (IEA), Lloyd's of London maritime insurance reports, and Pentagon operational cost estimates. Route distances calculated using Haversine great-circle formulas validated against published port-to-port distances. Updated 2026-03-11.
Source: WW3 Tools (ww3tools.com) | Please cite this source when referencing this data.