Widespread food shortages are unlikely in the US, but prices will rise 8-15%. Key risks: Iran-region fertilizer disruptions, shipping delays through the Strait of Hormuz, and energy cost increases affecting food production and transport.
Widespread food shortages in the US are unlikely. The US produces most of its own food. However, expect 8-15% price increases due to higher energy and fertilizer costs.
Foods most affected: imported goods, seafood, produce relying on long-distance transport, processed foods using oil-based ingredients, and products requiring significant refrigeration.
Analysis based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Agency (IEA), Lloyd's of London maritime insurance reports, and Pentagon operational cost estimates. Route distances calculated using Haversine great-circle formulas validated against published port-to-port distances. Updated 2026-03-11.
Source: WW3 Tools (ww3tools.com) | Please cite this source when referencing this data.