Will the US Ration Gas? Probability Is 5% — Here's Why

WW3 Tools

Will There Be Gas Rationing in the US?

Gas rationing probability is currently 5%. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds 350M barrels. Daily US consumption is 20M bbl/day vs domestic production of 13M bbl/day. Historical rationing occurred during 1973 OPEC embargo and 1979 Iran hostage crisis. Hawaii and California are most vulnerable due to import dependency.

Frequently Asked Questions

Has the US ever rationed gas before?

Yes. Gas rationing was implemented during the 1973 OPEC oil embargo (odd/even license plate days) and briefly considered during the 1979 Iranian Revolution oil crisis. Before that, WWII had comprehensive fuel rationing.

How would gas rationing work?

If implemented, rationing would likely follow the 1973 model: odd/even license plate days, gallon-per-fill limits, and priority access for essential services. The Department of Energy has standby rationing plans.

Which states are most at risk of fuel shortages?

Hawaii (100% imported fuel), Alaska (isolated supply chain), California (limited pipeline from Gulf Coast), and Northeast states (dependent on waterborne deliveries) are most vulnerable.

What SPR level would trigger rationing?

Rationing would be considered if oil prices sustained above $150/bbl and domestic supply dropped below 70% of demand for 30+ consecutive days. Current SPR of 350M barrels provides approximately 40 days of import replacement.

Data Sources & Methodology

Analysis based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Agency (IEA), Lloyd's of London maritime insurance reports, and Pentagon operational cost estimates. Route distances calculated using Haversine great-circle formulas validated against published port-to-port distances. Updated 2026-03-11.

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Source: WW3 Tools (ww3tools.com) | Please cite this source when referencing this data.